The federal government wants to increase the number of Australians who complete tertiary study from 60% to 80% by 2050.
To do this we will need more young people going to university after they finish school. But this is not necessarily straightforward or easy.
We know the final year of school can be stressful, full of exams and study. But our new research shows Year 12 students also face many other pressures.
GENERATION is a national survey of young people conducted by the Australian National University, Australian Council of Educational Research, and Social Research Centre. Students were recruited from all Australian states and school sectors when they were in Year 10 in 2022 and have since been surveyed annually.
Here, we report findings from almost 4,000 young people from 2024, when most were in Year 12.
Mental health and neurodiversity in Year 12
Research shows mental health issues are most common during adolescence and early adulthood.
Our survey shows how widespread they are among Year 12 students. Almost one in three (32%) respondents reported high psychological distress (indicating a probable serious mental illness) in the four weeks before the survey was completed.
These levels of psychological distress are much higher than in another national cohort study (the Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth) of young people aged 20 in 2020. This found 22% reported high psychological distress.
While our survey did not examine the causes, other studies have shown the COVID pandemic exacerbated mental diagnoses among young people. Research also suggests social media use, climate change and cost-of-living pressures have accelerated mental health challenges.
In our survey, 18% of young people also reported some form of psychological disorder (such as an anxiety disorder, depression or psychosis) for six months or more.
A significant proportion of students also identified as neurodivergent, with 15% reporting they had an intellectual or learning difficulty, including autism spectrum disorder or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.
Who are Year 12 students turning to for career advice?
We also asked young people where they are going for career advice.
Teachers, career advisers and other mentors were the most common source. But the level of expert advice differed by school sector.
About two-thirds (68%) of students from an independent school reported speaking with a career advisor about their plans – significantly more than students in Catholic (58%) and government schools (52%).
When students were asked what should change to give them the best chance of reaching their goals and aspirations, a common response was more career advice in schools. One participant said they would like
a compulsory meeting with a guidance career counsellor to talk about what I want to do and how to get there and possibly pathways I should consider.
This suggests students are getting patchy advice at this crucial time, and their access to career advice may depend on where they go to school.
Changing university aspirations over time
We also found young people’s aspirations towards university are changing.
Male students’ aspirations to attend university dropped between Year 11 and Year 12 (from 59% to 46%). There was a much smaller decline in uni aspirations for female students (from 68% in Year 11 to 62% in Year 12).
This is different from earlier cohorts of young people. University aspirations of teenage boys increased from Year 11 to Year 12 between 2016 and 2017.
But perhaps young men are looking at other pathways after school.
The percentage of young men aspiring to undertake vocational education, such as TAFE, has increased. We found 26% of our Year 12 group planned to undertake vocational education, compared with 17% of Year 12s surveyed in 2017 (via the Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth).
The costs of study
The high costs of post-school education (which have risen in recent years) may also be driving changes in university aspirations.
We asked young people about the possible financial barriers to pursuing further study. The chart below shows financial pressures impacting on future study plans, study loads and students’ life choices.
For example, young people want to pursue courses with a better chance of getting a job (62%), minimise the costs of study such as by taking a lower-fee course (40%) or completing studies part-time (34%), or not study at all (13%).
A third (34%) of young people also planned to postpone their studies due to the costs.
Where to from here?
Our study shows there are significant pressures on Year 12 students – they face challenges around their mental health, career planning and finances.
If governments are serious about encouraging more Australians to keep studying, they also need to support young people to overcome these challenges.
We are just about to survey students for 2025. So we will continue to follow the journey of young Australians as they transition to life beyond school.
Ben Edwards receives funding from the federal Department of Education, Defence Strategic Policy Grants, New South Wales Department of Education Screen-time fund and UK Research Infrastructure (UKRI).
Jessica Arnup receives funding from the federal Department of Education, New South Wales Department of Education Screen Use and Addiction Research Fund, and federal government Defence Strategic Policy Grants Program.
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